Trump, Reeling from Election Night, Tightens Focus on Midterms

(Bloomberg) — Sweeping Democratic wins in this week’s elections have given new urgency to President Donald Trump’s efforts to midterm-proof his second term, with the president keenly aware of the consequences if Republicans lose control of Congress.

Securing the midterms won’t be easy. Tuesday’s results underscore the extent to which the political and economic paradigm has shifted for Trump from his electoral victory a year ago, a period in which he aggressively reshaped Washington with little opposition. Now, the 2026 midterms are shaping up as a much tougher referendum on his political brand. Polls — and the GOP’s electoral setback — indicate voters have grown weary of the president’s firebrand politics and uneven stewardship of the economy.

Most Read from Bloomberg

Eager to maintain Republican control of the House and Senate, Trump has resorted to drastic measures. He’s directed Republican governors to redraw congressional districts in order to create more GOP House seats. He’s also demanded Republican Senate leaders scrap the filibuster rule to pass national restrictions on mail-in voting and voter identification requirements, arguing without evidence that elections have been plagued by widespread fraud.

Trump has promised a rare national Republican convention ahead of the midterms to rally his base. He’s also expected to step up his travel in 2026 as part of his midterms push, people close to the White House said, though he has thus far taken few political trips. Aides say he also plans to refocus his message around the cost of living, which swung the off-year elections against the GOP in New York City, Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere.

“The only problem is the Republicans don’t talk about it and Republicans should start talking about it and use their heads,” Trump told reporters Thursday as he discussed his party’s political woes around affordability issues.

Should Republicans lose their congressional majorities, an emboldened Democratic Party would be poised to rein in Trump’s policies on trade, taxes, immigration and the federal workforce. They’d also be empowered to launch congressional investigations, backed by subpoena power, into a wide swath of presidential actions, risking embarrassing or politically inconvenient revelations.

Such an outcome could also shatter the image of strength Trump has wielded to maintain an iron grip on his party and dominate his opponents, while forcing him to stare down his own political mortality as his party begins charting the contest to succeed him.

People close to the president say he’s desperate to avoid a repeat of the midterms during his first term, when Democrats won control of the House. Trump’s legislative agenda stalled and he was impeached twice.

Barred from appearing on the ballot in 2028, Trump is also grappling with ways to avoid the “lame duck” final years of a president’s second term — including by floating an end-run around the Constitution to run again before acknowledging it’s not allowed.

Democratic candidates won top-tier and down-ballot races around the country by focusing on cost-of-living issues that dominate voters’ attention. That revealed the risks of Trump’s freewheeling style; the president’s attention the last few weeks has been on negotiations with China, meetings with foreign leaders and his White House renovations.

It also served as a reminder that Trump’s supporters don’t necessarily vote when he is not on the ballot, a problem Republicans will have to confront again next year.

Trump’s reaction also underscored that he may not be Republicans’ most helpful midterm messenger. This week, he declared on social media that “the Democrats ‘affordability’ issue is dead,” even as his advisers acknowledged the need to focus more on lower prices.

Other Republicans warned voters could punish the party again if leaders downplay their concerns.

“There is an affordability issue,” said Representative Don Bacon, a Nebraska Republican who is not running for reelection. “Gas prices are down, but most people at the supermarket aren’t seeing any improvement.”

Recent polls show an unhappy electorate, an encouraging sign for Democrats’ chances to win back the narrowly divided House of Representatives. Trump’s approval rating stood at 37% and his disapproval at 63%, according to a CNN poll released this week. Surveys also show Democratic voters are more energized than Republicans heading into the midterms.

“The Democratic Party is full steam ahead to take back Congress next year,” Democratic National Committee Chair Ken Martin said this week on a call with reporters.

Shutdown Politics

The government shutdown is also driving public frustration, as federal workers miss paychecks, food aid is delayed and flights have been canceled. Polling shows Republicans are shouldering more of the blame, but Trump has refused to meet with Democrats to negotiate a compromise. Instead, he has called on Republicans to abolish the filibuster to reopen the government, despite leaders’ insistence they lack the votes.

Still, Trump allies argue he has some clear advantages going into 2026 that he did not have in 2018. He has consolidated Republicans around his agenda, Democratic opposition still has not matched the energy following Trump’s surprise 2016 win and he has raised immense sums of money through Trump-associated political action committees.

Some Republicans also said that this week’s results weren’t representative of the country as a whole because they largely came in Democratic states and their party was plagued by weak candidates.

The GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund sent a memo to donors, reviewed by Bloomberg News, which argued that while Democrats did better than expected this week, they over-performed in Democratic states that Trump lost in 2024. Looking ahead to the midterms, it said that Senate Republicans have winning candidates in Trump-won states and that they are in a strong position to hold the chamber.

Trump took a relatively hands-off approach to this year’s contests. He did not campaign in person in New Jersey or Virginia with Republican gubernatorial candidates, instead opting for virtual rallies. Trump’s vocal opposition to democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani helped fuel his winning campaign for New York City mayor, though the president’s party is also poised to use the mayor-elect as a foil.

“The decision facing all Americans could not be more clear. We have a choice between communism and common sense,” Trump said Wednesday at an event in Miami.

Redistricting Fight

One of the ways Trump has worked to bolster his party’s standing in 2026 is to trigger a redistricting arms race between red and blue states. Texas Republicans redrew their state’s map to add five GOP-leaning seats outside of the typical once-a-decade cycle. In response, California Governor Gavin Newsom got voters to approve a map that could net Democrats five seats there, enough to counter Texas’ changes.

Trump has also urged other Republican-controlled states, including Missouri and Indiana, to follow Texas’ lead. That has energized Democrats to jump into the fight. Former President Barack Obama, among the party’s most popular figures, denounced the GOP maneuvers as an “existential threat” to American democracy.

Trump has also returned to a long-running fixation, mail-in voting, promising an executive order curbing the now-common practice. He has long made unsubstantiated allegations that his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden was tainted by fraudulent ballots.

Peter Loge, director of the School of Media and Public Affairs at George Washington University, said that traveling to promote legislation is standard politicking but Trump is aiming for something more.

“One way you win a game is trying to change the rules to favor your side,” he said.

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

©2025 Bloomberg L.P.