German trade surplus shrinks to 11-month low as imports surge

Germany’s trade surplus narrowed further in September 2025, falling to its lowest level since October 2024, as a stronger-than-expected rise in imports outpaced export growth.

According to preliminary data released by the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), seasonally adjusted exports rose by 1.4% month-on-month to €131.1 billion, while imports jumped 3.1% to €115.9bn.

This brought the monthly trade surplus down to €15.3bn, compared with €16.9bn in August and €18.0bn a year earlier.

The reading came in below economists’ expectations, who had anticipated a largely unchanged surplus of €16.9bn.

Over the first nine months of 2025, total exports reached €1.18 trillion, up 0.7% from the same period in 2024. Imports rose more sharply, up 4.8% to €1.03tr, pointing to a weakening trend in Germany’s annual trade balance.

While German exports posted a modest recovery — up 2.0% compared to September 2024 — import volumes climbed more decisively, up 4.8% year-on-year.

The data suggest that domestic demand is showing resilience even as global demand remains mixed.

Imports from non-EU countries were a major driver of the uptick, rising 5.2% on the month. In particular, imports from China — the country’s largest supplier — rose by 6.1% month-over-month to €14.6bn.

Imports from the United States increased even more sharply, up 9.0% to €8.7bn. Goods imported from the UK surged by 20% to €3.6bn.

Meanwhile, exports to the US rebounded after five months of contraction, rising by 11.9% on the month to €12.2bn. However, they remained 7.4% below September 2024 levels, reflecting the lingering effects of Trump tariffs.

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Exports to the UK also saw a robust increase, up 7.1% to €7.0bn, while shipments to China declined by 2.2% to €6.7bn, remaining 11.9% below levels seen a year ago.

Germany’s trade surplus remains largely fuelled by intra-EU commerce.

Exports to EU member states rose 2.5% to €74.3bn, while imports from those countries increased by a smaller 1.2% to €59.3bn.

Within the eurozone, exports rose by 1.4% and imports declined by 0.7%, further boosting the surplus.

However, the strongest momentum came from non-eurozone EU members, with exports jumping 5.1% and imports rising 4.9%.

Carsten Brzeski, global head of Macro at ING, described the September trade figures as “more evidence of the small rebound of the German economy after the summer,” but cautioned that the uptick in exports was too modest to signal a broader recovery.

Brzeski noted that German export volumes remain below their pre-‘Liberation Day’ levels, and well under March 2025 figures.

He highlighted deeper structural shifts in Germany’s export landscape, highlighting a declining share of trade with both the United States and China.

Exports to the US, despite a near 12% monthly rise in September, now account for just 9.5% of Germany’s total exports — down from 10.5% a year earlier. China’s share has dropped even more sharply to 5%, compared to nearly 8% in the pre-pandemic years.

Looking ahead, he warned that German exporters are still facing significant challenges.

“US tariffs are still weighing on exports and will probably only show their full impact over the coming months,” Brzeski said, adding that it will take “a lot of imagination” to envision a near-term return of exports as a key engine of German growth.