ConocoPhillips Lifts Dividend 8% and Raises 2025 Output

ConocoPhillips posted Q3 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.61, raised its ordinary dividend by 8% to $0.84 per share, lifted full-year production guidance to 2.375 MMBOED, trimmed 2025 operating cost guidance, and outlined preliminary 2026 plans for ~$12 billion in capex, $10.2 billion in adjusted operating costs, and 0–2% underlying production growth.

The key news is a higher cash return baseline via an 8% ordinary dividend increase alongside upgraded 2025 production and lower operating cost guidance, plus a first look at 2026 spending and volume plans.

Q3 2025 results showed earnings of $1.7 billion ($1.38 per share) and adjusted earnings of $2.0 billion ($1.61 per share). Production averaged 2,399 MBOED, up 4% year over year on an underlying basis, with Lower 48 contributing 1,528 MBOED including 686 MBOED from the Delaware Basin, 403 MBOED from Eagle Ford, 200 MBOED from the Bakken, and 196 MBOED from the Midland Basin. Cash from operations was $5.4 billion, excluding working capital, supporting $2.9 billion in capex and investments, $1.3 billion in buybacks, and $1.0 billion in dividends. The company realized an average price of $46.44/BOE, 14% below the prior year quarter, with lower prices partly offset by the Marathon Oil acquisition and higher volumes.

For 2025, ConocoPhillips lifted full-year production guidance to 2.375 MMBOED and cut adjusted operating cost guidance to $10.6 billion. Fourth-quarter production is expected at 2.30–2.34 MMBOED. In 2026, the company plans approximately $12 billion of capex (down versus 2025 midpoint), adjusted operating costs of $10.2 billion, and 0–2% underlying production growth.

Project updates included revised Willow project capital of $8.5–$9.0 billion due to inflation and North Slope/marine cost escalation; the project is nearing 50% complete with first oil narrowed to early 2029. LNG capital was reduced to $3.4 billion after a $0.6 billion Port Arthur credit; NFE (first LNG expected 2026), NFS, and PALNG remain on schedule, and the company signed 20-year SPAs at PALNG Phase 2 and Rio Grande LNG Train 5 (expected 2030 and 2031 starts).

Portfolio high-grading continued with more than $3.0 billion of dispositions year-to-date 2025, including the $1.3 billion Anadarko Basin sale that closed Oct. 1; additional noncore sales of about $0.5 billion closed or are expected to close in Q4 2025, keeping ConocoPhillips on track toward its $5 billion target by year-end 2026. Shareholder distributions totaled over $2.2 billion in the quarter, split between $1.3 billion of buybacks and $1.0 billion in dividends. The new ordinary dividend of $0.84 per share is payable Dec. 1, 2025, to holders of record Nov. 17, 2025.

Context: The update underscores ConocoPhillips’ focus on disciplined capital, balance-sheet-supported returns, and LNG optionality as global gas markets tighten into the late 2020s. Despite lower realized prices versus 2024, higher scale post-Marathon Oil and ongoing asset sales support cash generation and capital flexibility. Willow’s cost re-baseline and narrowed start-up window, combined with advancing long-dated U.S. Gulf Coast LNG exposure, shape the company’s late-decade growth and free-cash-flow profile.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Oilprice Intelligence brings you the signals before they become front-page news. This is the same expert analysis read by veteran traders and political advisors. Get it free, twice a week, and you’ll always know why the market is moving before everyone else.

You get the geopolitical intelligence, the hidden inventory data, and the market whispers that move billions – and we’ll send you $389 in premium energy intelligence, on us, just for subscribing. Join 400,000+ readers today. Get access immediately by clicking here.