4 private data points investors are watching this week for signs of economic health

• Investors will scrutinize new private data this week as the government shutdown continues.

• The shutdown is days away from becoming the longest in history.

• Investors are eager for any updates on the job market and hints about consumer health.

With no end in sight to the government shutdown, investors are still operating in the dark amid the blackout in public data.

That’s turning the market’s attention to a handful of other updates this week, which could offer investors a glimpse as to what’s happening under the hood of the US economy.

Those hints will come at a critical time for the market, which is heading into a historically strong time of the year for stocks. Investors, still buoyed by the AI trade, are digesting high-profile corporate earnings and watching to see any progress on the government shutdown, which is days away from becoming the longest in history.

Traders will be hungry for any updates on the job market. Markets have already missed out on the nonfarm payroll report for September, and will not receive a consumer inflation report for October.

Here’s the data this week that investors will be parsing.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas’s monthly report of announced job cuts is due on Thursday.

That’s expected to be front-and-center for investors, given that the Fed’s rate cut trajectory depends largely on how strong the job market holds up from here.

Layoffs for the year rose to 946,426 at the end of September, the highest year-to-date total since the pandemic, Challenger said in last month’s report.

“October’s Challenger announced job layoffs report (Thu) is likely to show an increase, especially among technology companies,” Ed Yardeni, the president of Yardeni Research, wrote in a note.

Investors will also be on the lookout for ADP private jobs data for October, which is set to be released on Wednesday. Economists are expecting the US private sector to have added 25,000 jobs for the month, up from a 32,000 loss for the month of September.

The ADP report is one of the data points that will “carry more weight” this week as the shutdown continues, Aaron Hill, the chief market analyst at FP Markets, wrote in a note.

“The recent trend continues to point to a weakening in hiring momentum,” he said, adding that weaker-than-expected numbers in October could weigh on Treasury yields while supporting stocks.

The Institute for Supply Management is expected to provide an update on manufacturing activity and price growth in the sector on Wednesday. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 49.3%, a slight improvement from last month’s reading of 49.1%.

Economists expect the ISM’s Services Index, a gauge of the services sector of the economy, to come in at 50.3%, a slight improvement from last month’s 50.0%.

“Should the release show any weakness in hiring or price pressures, this will bolster the case for a cut in December, while more robust readings will reinforce Powell’s recent comments,” FP Markets’ Hill added.

In lieu of the official retail sales report from the US Census Bureau, investors will be taking in the Redbook Retail Sales Index on Tuesday. That will offer some insight into how the US consumer is faring.

The new report will likely confirm that consumers are still spending money on goods at a “solid pace,” Yardeni said, citing the uptrend in official retail sales data over recent months.

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