Senate reaches funding deal, but tonight’s shutdown deadline may pass without a presidential signature

The Senate has reached a deal to avert a government shutdown. Now, perhaps, the hard part begins.

Majority Leader John Thune is aiming for a Senate vote later today after the chamber comes into session at 11 a.m. ET. But delays have already been evident, and a lack of agreement among all 100 senators to limit debate could push the final vote into the evening — or perhaps the weekend.

Leadership had hoped to hold a vote last night, but objections from Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, quickly scuttled that plan.

Even if the Senate is able to finish its business, the House of Representatives will need to consider the amended package as well. That means that a government shutdown — set to begin tonight at midnight — is unlikely to be averted, even though the stoppage is likely to be a limited one and end once the Capitol Hill wrangling is complete.

Read more: How a government shutdown would impact your money: Student loans, Social Security, investments, and more

The agreement announced Thursday evening between Senate Democrats and the White House would push off a final decision on funding the Department of Homeland Security for two weeks and approve five other spending bills that have already been agreed to in the meantime.

The current state of play means that many government functions in focus for markets — from the Bureau of Labor Statistics to the Federal Aviation Administration to the Internal Revenue Service — are likely to face only a short lapse in funding and minimal disruptions if the stoppage ends next week.

Funding for the Pentagon and State Department, as well as Health & Human Services and Education, would also be approved if this quintet of other bills advances.

President Trump threw his support behind the deal in a Truth Social post Thursday evening, offering his hope that lawmakers in both parties give the package “a very much needed Bipartisan ‘YES’ Vote.”

But if the deal passes the Senate, the path in the House could be rocky as well, with lawmakers in that chamber also likely to throw up roadblocks.

House Speaker Mike Johnson previously pledged “we’ll get everybody back as soon as we can” for a potential final vote, likely the last step before going to Trump for his signature.

The deal means that Washington is likely to avoid what could have been significant economic impacts.

“If nothing goes wrong, the shutdown should end by next Wed.-Thurs,” Tobin Marcus of Wolfe Research offered in a note to clients Friday, calling the economic effects of that sort of stoppage “just a blip.”

“Fiscal impacts will be negligible, but next Friday’s payroll data could be briefly delayed,” he noted.

The framework announced Thursday would fund an estimated 96% of the federal government through September by allowing the Senate to pass these outstanding bills.

The contentious issue of funding the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) would then be on a separate track.

The deal also includes a bill providing two weeks of DHS funding while what are expected to be contentious talks get underway. DHS oversees the offices of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is also part of Homeland Security, as is the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), meaning funding there is likely to stay uncertain for weeks.

The deal comes after a fatal shooting in Minneapolis last weekend led to a deadlock on Capitol Hill as Democrats said they would not support funding for Trump’s immigration efforts without an “overhaul.”

Trump then discussed deescalating the situation and allowed his White House to strike a funding deal that essentially accedes to Democratic demands for now.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has made the Democratic position clear all week.

“Democrats are ready to pass five bipartisan funding bills in the Senate,” he said Thursday, but added that the DHS bill “still needs a lot of work.”

Schumer and other Democrats are demanding measures like new requirements for warrants during immigration operations and mandatory body cameras, as well as a potential ban on ICE officers wearing masks.

Some wings of the government have already had their funding secured and will continue operating this weekend, no matter what.

Areas like the Department of Commerce (which releases some economic data) and the Department of Agriculture (which administers food benefits) were finalized in recent months

In total, there are 12 annual appropriations bills needed to fully fund the US government, and six have already been given presidential approval.

Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.

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