2026 housing market outlook from mortgages to meditation zones

What will happen in the housing market next year? Here are some best guesses from industry participants on many of the things that matter most – rates, prices, and sales – as well as some fun extras (spa bathroom, anyone?)

It’s also worth noting that many industry experts are increasingly forecasting divergence in the national housing outlook. Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, calls it a “two-speed market,” split between regions that are going to see more growth and those that have become too expensive – or too risky – to continue booming like they have over the past few years.

As of the first week of December, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has averaged 6.64% throughout 2025, not far off last year’s forecasts. For the coming year, most industry pros expect a slight decrease – though perhaps not as much as many buyers would hope.

• Mortgage Bankers Association: 6.4%

• Realtor.com: 6.3%

• Kushi: “low-6s”

• Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors: “Averaging around 6%… a modest decline that will improve affordability.”

• Fannie Mae: 6%

• NAR: 4% increase

• Realtor.com: “Home prices will grow by 2.2%; however, real (inflation-adjusted) home prices will decline slightly for a second consecutive year.”

• Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant: 0.9% increase

• Mortgage Bankers Association: 0.3% decline.

More: America’s housing is pulling further out of reach, report finds

• NAR: 14% increase

• Lisa Sturtevant: 9.0% increase

• Fannie Mae: 7.8% increase in sales of previously-owned homes

• MBA: 6.3% increase in sales of previously-owned homes

“Negotiating power is expected to tilt slightly toward buyers as more homes come online and affordability improves—though younger and first-time buyers will continue to face financial hurdles,” said Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, in a statement accompanying the group’s annual forecast.

“Lean inventory in the Northeast and Midwest keeps conditions relatively tight and price growth steadier, while parts of the South and West remain soft,” Kushi wrote. “Rising insurance and other carrying costs, especially along the coast, could widen the gap.”

Sturtevant agrees that tighter conditions will support higher prices in the Northeast and Midwest. “AI-driven tech markets, such as San Francisco and San Jose, are seeing a resurgence in housing demand and will fuel stronger price appreciation in the year ahead,” she added. “Cooler market conditions are expected in Florida and Texas markets, where inventory has surged, as well as in Seattle, Portland and Denver, where demand has retreated.”

Realtor.com analysts believe the divide will also extend to the rental market. “The South and West will see the largest benefits from rent softening, driven by significant new construction and already-moderating prices.” But for some “high-density, high-cost metros” – namely New York City – there’s no rental relief in sight.

Zillow’s trends outlook expects more of an emphasis on wellness in the home. Buyers are likely to be drawn to dedicated meditation spaces, smart cleaning technologies, or “spa-inspired bathrooms.”

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Here’s the outlook for the housing market in 2026