A financially independent trader who consistently beats the S&P 500 shares 3 pieces of advice for retail investors in 2026
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Erik Smolinski has three key investing tips for retail investors in 2026.
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He encourages all investors to think about what the world will look like in three to five years.
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He also emphasizes putting your money to work right away. Don’t wait until 2026 to start.
Erik Smolinski makes a living trading options.
The 34-year-old Marine veteran has been at it for more than half of his life. Since he first started trading in 2007, he’s posted just two negative years — his first two — and, between 2018 and 2022, returned 24.6% on average. Business Insider verified his claims by looking at screenshots of his summary statements.
Smolinki’s strongest year was 2023, when he returned triple digits. In 2025, he said his portfolio has returned 79% and he’s on track to hit his third strongest-performing year.
While he prefers active trading, he’s the first to point out that it isn’t for everyone — and most experts agree that the everyday investor looking to build long-term wealth should stick with a less risky passive investing strategy.
Smolinski, who runs Outlier Trading, shared three pieces of advice for the everyday investor heading into 2026.
A simple thought experiment that any investor can benefit from is to ask and thoughtfully consider the answer to: What do you think the world will look like in a few years?
“Make sure that your holdings reflect what you think the world might look like in three to five years from now,” said Smolinski. “I’m typically a growth factor guy, which means that I typically am bullish. I generally think that people will become more innovative, companies will become smarter, and more value will be generated. Because of that, I think about where it might be centralized.”
The answer, for him at least, is AI.
As an investor, “there are a bunch of different ways to play AI broadly,” he said. “Large-cap stocks that pertain to AI directly or indirectly, so semiconductor producers like Micron, or enablers like NVIDIA or Intel. Or, you can zoom out one level and go into a sector ETF, so you can look at the technology sector ETFs like XLK. You could do one layer above that, and use something like the Nasdaq QQQ, which people refer to as the tech ETF.”
Don’t let AI bubble chatter get in your head, he added. It’s impossible to predict the market, plus, “if you dollar cost average, long-term it doesn’t matter.”
The question you should be asking is, “Do you think technology like AI is going to be significant enough and disruptive enough to cause these companies to be worth more three to five years from now?” he said. “And I think you would be hard pressed to wager not.”

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