What Wall Street’s heavy hitters are predicting for the stock market in 2026

It’s December 1, and we’re firmly enmeshed in the most exciting part of any given year.

No, I’m not referring to the holiday season, even if your local radio stations have all flipped over to Christmas formatting. I’m talking about stock forecast season, when the top strategists on Wall Street unveil their S&P 500 targets for the year ahead.

The Street’s heaviest hitters have been on it, with a handful publishing their 2026 outlooks before Thanksgiving, giving market enthusiasts everywhere something to chew on over the holiday weekend.

Before we get into what they expect, it’s important to know how many grains of salt to take these forecasts with. After all, S&P 500 prognostication has hardly been a foolproof endeavor over the last couple of years.

In 2024, the median Wall Street forecast undershot where the S&P 500 actually finished the year by 18%. Firms are pacing to be much more accurate this year, but they’re still 3% below the consensus target with a month to go. Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs — which all had the same target — are currently 5% behind.

If this (admittedly limited) sample size suggests anything, it’s that Wall Street firms are usually directionally correct, but can struggle to pinpoint exact upside. Still, it’s useful to hear their fundamental arguments.

Speaking of which, here’s what the elite duo of Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan have said about 2026 so far, along with their S&P 500 targets:

Year-end target: 7,500 (10% upside)

The firm’s forecast is built around earnings-growth potential, which has historically been the biggest driver of stock gains. It says the AI supercycle will generate above-trend profit growth of 13%-15%. JPMorgan also sees a resilient economy playing a big role in supporting that earnings expansion.

One of the big knocks on the market currently is that — by many measures — it’s just too darn expensive. JPMorgan says above-trend profit growth will eventually rationalize where valuations are right now.

Year-end target: 7,800 (14% upside)

Morgan Stanley is also laser-focused on earnings, but is even more bullish. It says the US finally emerged from a three-year rolling recession in April, and is now in the early innings of a rolling recovery — a recovery that will fuel mid- to high-teens earnings growth.

The firm also says AI productivity gains, an accommodative Fed, and healthier breadth outside of the mega-cap tech elite will make earnings strength a primary driver of upside.