Nvidia earnings, delayed jobs data, and Fed minutes are on tap in a packed week for markets

• Stock investors are looking at a handful of key things as they try to recover from a losing week.

• Nvidia’s earnings will be a key focus as investors assess the health of the AI trade.

• Traders are also trying to assess the outlook for Fed rate cuts heading into 2026.

The stock market is kicking off a busy week of earnings and long-awaited economic data.

Investors are taking in a slew of important data points as they try to recover from another week of volatile trading. All three major indexes ended last week in the red, with the Nasdaq Composite sliding nearly 2% as traders took profits in tech stocks and continued to fret over the sustainability of the AI trade.

“This is an important week for markets, which have been volatile as of late due to reduced rate cut expectations for December and worries that AI spending is out of control and may outrun potential profits,” Dennis Follmer, the CIO of Montis Financial, wrote in a note, adding that some of the week’s coming events could spike volatility among traders.

Here’s what markets will be reacting to this week.

Nvidia’s third-quarter earnings will likely be the Super Bowl event for the week.

The world’s most valuable company will report third-quarter results after the closing bell on Wednesday. Analysts expect the chip giant to report revenue of around $54 billion, up from $46.7 billion in the previous quarter.

The chipmaker is seen as a bellwether for the AI trade, and investors will be looking for strong earnings as well as guidance for reassurance that the huge spending boom that’s propped up the entire market will continue.

There are concerns that an earnings beat may not be enough to satisfy some shareholders, who have raised the bar for Nvidia amid its steep stock rally this year. Expectations are riding high after CEO Jensen Huang said that the company has accrued $500 billion in orders for 2025 and 2026.

“A great earnings report with higher guidance from Nvidia really shouldn’t surprise anyone, but it may reinforce concerns over seemingly limited AI capital budgets,” Montis Financials’ Follmer said.

In addition to Nvidia’s results, major retailers including Home Depot, Target, and Walmart will report earnings for the third quarter this week.

New jobs data is finally coming, sort of.

Investors will gain insight into the labor market of two months ago, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to publish the September nonfarm payroll report on Thursday.

Markets have been operating in the dark without official labor market updates since the government shuttered operations in October. The coming data release in particular expected to be in sharp focus for markets as investors try to assess the outlook for rate cuts heading into 2026.

Private data has painted a lackluster picture of the US job market in recent weeks. Employers announced 153,074 layoffs in October, a 183% increase from the prior month and the worst October for layoff announcements since 2003, according to data from Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“More clarity is coming this week with Nvidia’s earnings and the delayed release of the September jobs report on Thursday, but these events have the potential to spike volatility even further,” Montis Financial’s FOllmer said. “A surprisingly strong or surprisingly weak September jobs number would likely have a big impact on expectations for a December rate cut since the FOMC is so split on next steps.”

Key to the interest rate outlook will be the minutes from the Fed’s October policy meeting. That’s expected to give investors a glimpse into what central bankers are thinking about inflation and the strength of the job market — and, most importantly, whether a December rate cut is on tap.

Markets are pricing in a 42.9% chance the Fed could cut rates another 25 basis points at its December policy meeting, down from a 93.7% chance priced in last month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

“Fed hawks swooped in and sent the odds of a December rate cut down to less than 50% this week — but we may be at a turning point. The release of the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes on Wednesday may clarify whether there are as many ‘hidden hawks’ as markets fear, or whether the doves will have the votes next month,” Rosenberg Research wrote in a note to clients over the weekend.

“Recent commentary suggests a more cautious tone, with some officials signalling that a December cut is far from assured,” analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a note on Monday.

A big lineup of speakers from the central bank is also expected to shape the market’s expectations for rate cuts this week.

Here’s the calendar of who’s speaking and when:

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