Tariffs are coming for your holiday wine

Choosing the right wine to pair with your Thanksgiving meal can be as stressful as cooking the turkey. And this year, it’s going to be worse.

Shoppers can expect higher prices and possibly slimmer selections at their local wine shops, as importers are facing steep tariffs and shopkeepers are dealing with declining demand.

Bottled wine prices have risen nearly 20% over the past 25 years and 8% over the past decade, according to the latest government data. Several reasons are to blame, including climate change, inflation and rising production costs.

Wine prices at McCabes Wine & Spirits shop in Manhattan are between 5% to 12% higher this year because “it’s the reality of the tariffs, shipping, manufacturing and labor,” said owner Daniel Mesznik.

His shop, like others in the United States, are working to strike a delicate balance. They’re dealing with higher upfront costs due to a hodgepodge of tariffs from President Donald Trump’s administration — notably, a 15% tariff on European Union imports — while trying not to pass too any of those costs to their customers

“We’re doing our best to keep those increases to a minimum for our guests,” he told CNN. “But, I think folks understand that this is the current reality and they’re receptive to it and they’re understanding of it.”

Tariffs are affecting the bottom line even more for importers of wine. Elenteny Imports, a logistics and distribution company that works with 9,000 retailers and restaurants, said wine sales are down 13% year over year.

Wine volume consumed in the United States declined 3% between 2019 and 2024, and it’s expected to fall another 4% from 2024 to 2029, according to IWSR, an alcohol data insights firm.

“For casual drinking occasions, wine has often been the choice for drinkers who prefer not to drink beer. But wine can be expensive and only comes in larger bottles,” said Marten Lodewijks, president of IWSR.

For the past few years, drinkers have been shifting their preferences to spirits and canned cocktails.

“We’ve seen wine volumes consistently decline year after year, while ready-to-drink beverages, which are less expensive, come in convenient sizes and packs, and benefit from continual flavor innovations, are growing rapidly,” he told CNN.

2025 is another gloomy year, according to data from Elenteny. Order volumes for imported wines show that year-to-date bookings are down nearly 30%.

Demand has sunk following a “post-pandemic frothiness,” Elenteny CEO Alexi Cashen told CNN, but said “absolutely that tariffs are the persecutory issue here.”

Domestic wines, which Trump thought the tariffs would help, aren’t selling any better this year, she added.

Mesznik’s shop, which recently reopened following a 16-month renovation, has shifted some of its focus from wine to tequila. He added 40% more brands and types and moved them to the front of the shop.

Notably, tequila and mezcal are exempt from tariffs since both fall under the 2018 free trade agreement Trump signed with Mexico during his first term.

“Tequila are in the most beautiful bottles. It’s the category in my business that everyone gravitates to right now and I want that to be front and center,” Mesznik said.

Wine used to be roughly 70% of his annual sales but will drop to 65% this year because of growth in other categories, like agave, he said.

With drastically smaller orders coming in from overseas, including a 50% drop from France and 66% decline from Italy, per Elenteny’s data, shoppers might see that reflected on store shelves.

“Many retailers, distributors, and restaurants have streamlined their wine offerings in response to the falling overall demand for alcoholic beverages, including wine,” Mike Veseth, the Wine Economist, told CNN. “Consumers might have to search more than usual to find a particular brand.”

Adding to the uncertainty, Veseth said, is the upcoming Supreme Court decision about the legality of tariffs, “which discourages wine business from making investment or taking decisive action on prices.”

In particular, Cashen said mid-priced wines between $40 to $50 wines “struggle the most,” while low-end bottles and premium wines are selling well, further underscoring the “K-shaped” economy.

Meanwhile, Mesznik said his shop is ordering “smarter” compared to years’ past, buying from fewer wholesalers that offer deals when buying more cases.

“For example, we have a Pinot Noir from Argentina this month that’s on sale. Whereas I may only buy normally 1 or 3 cases of that, I’m ordering 5 and 10 cases,” he said.

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