Chevron Targets Double-Digit Cash Flow Growth in 2030 Roadmap

Chevron (NYSE: CVX) used its investor day in New York to signal a confident long-term outlook, unveiling a five-year plan built on sustained free cash flow growth, tighter capital spending, expanding production, and a push into power solutions for AI-driven data center demand. Management said the strategy positions the company to deliver more than 10% annual growth in both adjusted free cash flow and earnings per share at $70 Brent—an outlook CEO Mike Wirth called the strongest of his career.

The company reduced its annual capex guidance to a lower range of $18–$21 billion while forecasting steady production increases of 2–3% per year through 2030. Chevron also boosted its expected Hess-related synergies to $1.5 billion and raised structural cost reduction targets to $3–$4 billion by the end of 2026. The plan centers on keeping a breakeven below $50 Brent and expanding cash generation across a diversified portfolio.

Chevron is building on years of high-profile acquisitions—including Hess—and what it describes as a low-risk, high-confidence project slate across U.S. shale, the Gulf of Mexico, and international assets. With AI-driven electricity use emerging as one of the fastest-growing segments of U.S. energy demand, Chevron is positioning itself early with a power business aimed at supplying data centers, starting with its first dedicated project in West Texas expected online in 2027.

Its Downstream and Chemicals arm is also set for growth, with two major chemicals units scheduled to start up in 2027—part of a broader repositioning that aims to harden cash flows across commodity cycles.

The company reaffirmed its emphasis on shareholder distributions, highlighting 25 years of leading dividend growth and a buyback program targeting $10–$20 billion annually through 2030 at $60–$80 Brent. Stronger free cash flow, a fortified balance sheet, and portfolio upgrades underpin the plan, CFO Eimear Bonner said.

Chevron emphasized a “pragmatic” strategy in new energies—one centered on returns and integration with its existing strengths. Priority areas include renewable fuels, hydrogen, CCUS, lithium, and the new power business aimed at supporting U.S. AI infrastructure. Chevron argues that this approach avoids the execution risk associated with large-scale renewables while keeping it aligned with evolving policy and demand.

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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