Don’t hold your breath for fresh government data to come quickly, even if the shutdown ends this week

Don’t hold your breath for fresh government data to come quickly, even if the shutdown ends this week

Don’t hold your breath for fresh government data to come quickly, even if the shutdown ends this week

A new path on Capitol Hill to end the government shutdown could quickly reverse some of the economic pain from the 40-day stoppage, but the cutoff of government data could take longer to equalize.

At least some of the information most closely watched by markets appears likely to be lost forever, while some older data on where the labor market stood in September could become available soon once federal workers are back on the job.

Most in focus this week is inflation data, as a schedule posted long ago by the Bureau of Labor Statistics still lists a Consumer Price Index (CPI) release coming Nov. 13 at 8:30 a.m. ET.

That won’t happen even if lawmakers reopen the government quickly, as the White House previously stated that the October CPI data may never be known.

“There will likely NOT be an inflation release next month for the first time in history,” a White House account posted on Oct. 24, saying it was because “surveyors cannot deploy to the field — depriving us of critical data.”

September’s inflation data was released during the shutdown and came in lower than expected but held stubbornly at around 3%.

Christine Conner votes at a Checkers grocery store Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2025, in Lawrence, Kan. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
US voters’ focus on price increases was crystallized when voting in Kansas during last week’s election took place at a Checkers grocery store. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel) · ASSOCIATED PRESS

Updated data release schedules are not expected until days after the government reopens, with nearly all officials responsible for overseeing these releases currently furloughed.

Outstanding questions include whether the November inflation data will also be compromised. A White House official didn’t immediately respond to questions Monday morning about the plans and when data releases might be rescheduled.

The monthly jobs reports for both September and October were not released, and the widespread expectation is that the first new data to come when government workers return — later this week at the earliest — will be September jobs data.

Evercore ISI vice chair Krishna Guha predicted in a note Monday that “the first piece of labor data — the delayed September employment report — should be released within days of the shutdown ending, though it remains uncertain what October/November data will emerge and when.”

Read more: How the government shutdown affects your student loans, Social Security, and more

JOINT BASE ANDREWS, MARYLAND - NOVEMBER 09: U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to give a brief remark to members of the press after exiting Air Force One on November 9, 2025 at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland. Trump spent the weekend at his Mar-A-Lago estate in Palm Beach, Florida. (Photo by Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images)
President Trump speaks to the press at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland on Nov. 9. (Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images) · Tasos Katopodis via Getty Images

Both Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas have also predicted that the September jobs data could be released a few days after the government reopens.

BNP Paribas added in its own recent note that “processing other data will take time and some may be permanently lost. Staffing and morale challenges at the BLS make this more likely than after prior shutdowns.”

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