14 charts from unofficial data show a cooling labor market-awdailynews

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2025-11-10

14 charts from unofficial data show a cooling labor market

We’re in the second month of the government shutdown, which means we’re still not getting comprehensive economic survey data from federal agencies like the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Fortunately, there are private agencies that also track and regularly publish various economic data.

And almost all of that data confirms that the labor market continues to cool, increasing the risk that the economy tips into recession.

Let’s review some of the recent numbers.

According to payroll processor ADP, private sector employers added just 42,000 jobs in October. While the number was positive, it also confirmed a months-long trend in declining job creation.

Revelio Labs, which analyzes online professional profiles, estimates nonfarm payroll employment, which includes public and private sector employers, fell by 9,100 jobs in October.

LinkUp, which scrapes job listings from employer websites, estimates nonfarm payroll employment declined by 5,000 jobs.

These stats are consistent with the trend in BLS data, which showed net job creation had fallen to near zero in May through August.

According to job postings site Indeed, “As of October 31, job postings had slumped to their lowest level since 2021, with year-over-year declines recorded in almost every sector tracked by Indeed.”

These findings are consistent with the most recent BLS data, which showed job openings had fallen to their lowest level since early 2021.

According to Revelio Labs, the hiring rate continued to fall through October, suggesting companies have become less eager to fill open roles or add to staff. Similarly, attrition rates have fallen, suggesting employees are holding tight to their jobs or aren’t finding better opportunities elsewhere.

Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which tracks hiring plans in corporate announcements and public filings, said employers planned to hire 283,138 workers in October. Here’s UBS with some context: “Looking ahead, seasonal hiring does not look very strong this holiday season… The sum of September and October seasonally adjusted total hiring plans is 400K, well below the 625K average in the 2014 to 2019 period, 625K in 2023 and 670K in 2024.”

This sentiment was confirmed in the Conference Board’s October consumer confidence survey, which found that a relatively low percentage of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” while a growing percentage said jobs were “hard to get.” Economists monitor the spread between these two percentages (a.k.a., the labor market differential). The direction of the differential has been reflecting deteriorating confidence in the job market.

(Source: Conference Board via Kevin Gordon)

The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations found that consumers are becoming less optimistic about finding a job if they were to lose theirs today.

All of this is consistent with the most recent BLS data, which showed hiring and quits rates falling below prepandemic levels.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which tracks layoffs in corporate announcements and regulatory filings, said U.S. employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October.

The firm noted this was the highest total for a single month in the fourth quarter since 2008.

Year to date, employers announced 1,099,500 job cuts, the firm reported.

These figures are unsettling. But it’s also worth noting that the sample represents a relatively small segment of the economy. Most layoffs occur quietly and are not made public.

According to the BLS, which uses surveys to estimate labor market turnover across the economy, U.S. employers lay off about 1.5 million to 2 million workers per month, even during economic booms. In August, employers laid off 1.7 million people, but that figure also represented just 1.1% of total employment.

That said, it’s not a stretch to assume layoff activity is picking up based on everything else we know.

The Chicago Fed has a model that combines a bunch of available data to estimate the unemployment rate. And based on what’s out there, they estimate the unemployment rate was near 4.4% in October, which would be the highest rate in four years.

According to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations, a growing percentage of consumers expect the unemployment rate to be higher a year from now.

Citing University of Michigan consumer survey data, UBS notes 71% of consumers expect higher unemployment in 12 months.

Again, we won’t have a more precise assessment of layoff activity and unemployment until we get a more comprehensive survey, like the one conducted monthly by the BLS. But for now, the anecdotes and unofficial data suggest these metrics are deteriorating.

According to Indeed, wages in job postings continue to cool.

Similarly, ADP’s Pay Insights data shows that wage growth for those changing jobs or staying at jobs has plateaued.

Slowing wage growth is consistent with a labor market with fewer opportunities.

The labor market isn’t as hot as it was. Whenever the official data comes back, we could very well learn that unemployment is becoming a problem and that the economy may be in recession.

But this is also happening as we’re experiencing a potential productivity boom with the emergence of AI technology. Analysts expect this to be a tailwind for profit margins and earnings growth in the years to come. All of this explains why the stock market continues to trade near all-time highs.

Unfortunately, this development is also associated with job cuts as some industries and job sectors have a rocky transition to AI.

And so we have this counterintuitive dynamic where the economy could lag as the stock market trends higher. Because while the economy may not be working for everyone right now, it’s at least working for stock market investors.

The key question is: How bad could things get for the economy before they improve?

Corporate earnings can only grow so much on productivity gains alone. It’s hard for revenue to grow without economic growth, and without revenue growth, earnings will eventually suffer. And earnings are the most important driver of stock prices.

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