Markets enter an important week following last week’s significant pullback that tested key technical support levels across major indexes. The S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) and Nasdaq held their 50-day moving averages on Friday, but still surrendered considerable ground for the week alongside pressure in leading growth stocks, though several names rallied strongly off lows into the close on Friday.
The market rally now stands at a pivotal juncture where a strong rebound could signal the end of a healthy pullback, while decisively breaking below the 50-day lines could herald a more serious correction. The ongoing government shutdown continues creating uncertainty around federal operations and economic policy, though critical data releases remain on schedule including Thursday’s October CPI report that will provide insights into inflation trends. This week features a relatively light earnings calendar compared to recent weeks, with notable reports from Disney (DIS) Thursday testing entertainment sector health and Cisco (CSCO) Wednesday offering perspectives on enterprise technology spending. Wednesday’s 10-Year Note auction and Thursday’s 30-Year Bond auction will test investor appetite for longer-duration Treasuries amid shifting economic expectations and Fed policy uncertainty about the December meeting.
Here are 5 things to watch this week in the Market.
Technical Support Test and Market Direction
The market’s ability to hold or break decisively below the 50-day moving averages across major indexes represents the week’s most critical technical consideration, with implications for whether the recent pullback represents healthy consolidation or the beginning of a more substantial correction. Friday’s late-session rally off lows provided some encouragement that buyers are willing to defend key support levels, but follow-through strength early this week will be crucial for confirming that bullish momentum can reassert itself. Leading growth stocks that were punished last week face similar technical tests, with their ability to reclaim lost ground potentially determining whether speculative appetite returns or if defensive rotation accelerates. The relatively light earnings calendar creates a backdrop where technical factors and macroeconomic data may drive price action more than company-specific fundamentals. Investors will be watching breadth indicators, sector rotation patterns, and volume characteristics for clues about whether institutional money is buying the dip or reducing exposure. The convergence of technical support tests with Thursday’s inflation data creates potential for significant volatility that could determine market direction heading into the final weeks of 2025.
October CPI: Fed Policy Path Determinant
Thursday’s October CPI report at 8:30am represents the week’s most consequential economic release, providing critical insights into inflation trends that will significantly influence Federal Reserve expectations for the December meeting and beyond. Both headline and core CPI readings will be scrutinized for evidence of continued disinflation progress or any concerning reacceleration in price pressures that could complicate the Fed’s policy calculus. The report comes after markets have priced in around 60% probability for a December rate cut, with the inflation data potentially either reinforcing or undermining those expectations. Energy prices, housing costs, and services inflation will be key components to watch, particularly given their outsized influence on overall price trends and Fed policy considerations. Any significant deviation from expectations could trigger substantial volatility across rate-sensitive sectors and influence the dollar’s trajectory. The timing of Thursday’s CPI release alongside the 30-Year Bond auction creates potential for amplified market reactions, as inflation data directly impacts long-term Treasury demand and yield curve dynamics that affect everything from mortgage rates to equity valuations.
Disney’s Streaming and Entertainment Empire Assessment
Thursday’s Disney (DIS) earnings represent the week’s most high-profile corporate event, providing comprehensive insights into streaming profitability, theme park attendance, theatrical performance, and the overall health of the entertainment sector amid economic uncertainties. Disney+ subscriber trends, pricing power, and the path to sustained streaming profitability will be closely watched following years of heavy investment in direct-to-consumer platforms. Theme park results will offer important perspective on consumer discretionary spending and travel demand, particularly relevant given ongoing economic concerns. The company’s theatrical slate performance and traditional media business trends will provide additional context about entertainment consumption patterns and advertising market health. Disney’s commentary about the holiday season outlook, content investment priorities, and integration of recent acquisitions could significantly influence not only media stock sentiment but also broader consumer discretionary sector positioning. The results will help investors assess whether consumers are maintaining spending on entertainment and experiences or beginning to pull back in response to economic pressures.
Enterprise Technology and Emerging Markets Perspectives
Wednesday’s Cisco (CSCO) earnings will provide crucial insights into enterprise networking equipment demand, data center infrastructure investment, and corporate technology spending amid ongoing economic uncertainties and elevated interest rates. Cisco’s results will be particularly important for assessing whether businesses are maintaining IT budgets or beginning to cut back on infrastructure investments in response to economic concerns. The company’s commentary about AI-related networking demand, cloud migration trends, and cybersecurity product adoption will help determine whether enterprise technology spending can remain resilient. Tuesday’s Sea Limited (SE) earnings will offer perspective on Southeast Asian e-commerce, digital payments, and gaming markets, while Wednesday’s Nu Holdings (NU) results will provide insights into Latin American fintech and digital banking trends. Thursday’s JD.com (JD) earnings will offer additional perspective on Chinese e-commerce amid ongoing trade tensions. The international earnings will help assess global consumer health and technology adoption beyond U.S. markets.
Bond Market Dynamics and Government Shutdown Implications
Wednesday’s 10-Year Note auction and Thursday’s 30-Year Bond auction will test investor appetite for longer-duration Treasury securities amid evolving inflation expectations, Fed policy uncertainty, and fiscal concerns exacerbated by the ongoing government shutdown. The auctions come as bond markets attempt to price the appropriate level of term premium given mixed economic signals and questions about the Fed’s ability to achieve a sustainable soft landing. Demand patterns, yield levels, and bid-to-cover ratios will offer insights into institutional investor confidence about economic growth prospects and inflation trajectory. The government shutdown continues creating uncertainty around federal spending, economic data reliability, and political dysfunction in Washington that could influence sovereign debt perceptions and fiscal sustainability concerns. Strong auction results could reinforce confidence in U.S. assets and support risk appetite, while weak demand could trigger concerns about long-term fiscal challenges and potentially pressure equity valuations. The timing of the 30-Year auction immediately following Thursday’s CPI report creates potential for significant yield volatility that could ripple across all asset classes, particularly affecting rate-sensitive sectors and growth stocks that compete with bonds for investor capital.
Best of luck this week and don’t forget to check out my daily options article.
On the date of publication, Gavin McMaster had a position in: SPY. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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