Consensus Forming in Trucking – What the Big Guys Are Saying About the Near Future

The heavy hitters in trucking just finished their Q3 calls, and what they’re saying is loud enough for small carriers to hear: things are messy, but there’s a glimmer of opportunity if you play tight. From the Covenant Logistics team seeing “all‑time high” contract bids, to Old Dominion Freight Line eyeballing shrinking tonnage, the message is consistent: capacity is tightening, demand is soft, and whoever controls their cost structure and freight mix will come out ahead.

Let’s walk through what each of the major players is saying, then pull out the consensus and what it means for you—the small carrier or fleet owner in the trenches.

Covenant is talking like they’ve caught wind of a turn. Their CEO says customer bids—yes, contract bids—are up 17% since August, which is usually something you see in the November‑to‑February past‑season bid cycle.

Their revenue in Q3 was about $296.9 million and EPS adjusted at $0.44.

What they’re signaling: increased pricing power because shippers are starting to worry about capacity leaving the market. If you get ahead of that, you might lock in better contracts now.

On the flip side, Landstar sees the pressure. Their revenue dipped about 1% year‑over‑year, and costs crept up ($15.6 M vs $15.1 M).

They pointed to macro issues—trade policy, inflation, and general market instability.

In short: They’re not seeing a rapid rebound, just manageable turbulence.

XPO is doing some heavy lifting on the LTL side. They beat adjusted EPS ($1.07 vs $1.02 expected) and revenue of $2.11 billion (+3% y/y) in Q3.

Their adjusted operating ratio improved to 82.7% in their North American LTL segment—shipment/t tonnage counts are down, but yield (price per unit) is up about 5.9%.

Their message? You can still make money even when demand falls if you manage yield and cost effectively.

Werner is in a mixed spot. They reported revenue roughly flat to slightly down (in some sources up 3%) but operating income dropped—down ~63% y/y.

They pointed to muted freight demand and rising operating costs. Yet they’re also seeing early signs of tightening capacity and hope for freight/spot rate lift ahead.

Old Dominion is the caution light. Their Q3 operating revenue dropped 10% year‑over‑year, and early Q4 is showing more softness.

Management says the decline in tons per day (‑9% y/y) is the real drag, only partially offset by better pricing per hundredweight.

Their takeaway: even strong freight networks aren’t immune to weak demand and volume loss.

The Emerging Consensus

From pulling together all those viewpoints, here’s what the industry seems to agree on: Capacity is tightening.

Multiple carriers noted exits and fewer loads being chased. Covenant calls customer bids “all‑time highs” because they’re reacting to a capacity backside. Landstar, Werner and Old Dominion all cited smaller load volumes.

Why it matters: Less capacity should help rates—but only if you’re in the market where demand still exists and you’re disciplined.

1. Demand remains soft, especially volume.

   The problem isn’t just rates—it’s tons. Old Dominion’s tonnage is down double‑digits. XPO’s tonnage per day is down too, even though they’re getting better yield. If shippers don’t have freight, rates won’t save you.

   Why it matters: Being efficient and selective matters—running empty miles or chasing weak lanes just drags you.
   

2. Yield (price) is becoming the focus.

   XPO’s yield is up ~6%, Covenant sees contracts up ~17%. For carriers who can convince shippers to pay more, there’s margin potential.

   Cost control and operational execution separate winners from losers in any market, especially these.

   XPO’s improving operating ratio shows when things are off the volume cliff, consistency still counts. Werner and Landstar warned that rising costs are biting them even when revenue is stable.

   Why it matters: You’ve got to manage fuel, driver costs, maintenance, and idle time like you’re in a recession—because you are. Run lean as possible.
   

3. This may not be normal freight expansion—it’s a reset.

   They’re not talking about booming demand; they’re talking about surviving, resetting, and waiting for the next spike.

   Why it matters: If you act like it’s business as usual, you’ll get caught. If you act like you’re building strength for when the up‑cycle eventually comes, you’ll be positioned to win.
   

You’re not a mega network with thousands of trucks or an LTL giant shifting yields. But you’re playing the same game. Here’s how you should interpret the landscape and act accordingly:

• Negotiate hard on rate & work for contract freight now. If you’ve got an existing contract up for renewal, don’t wait. Covenant’s seeing contract bids already spiking. Lock in your terms now.
  

• Be selective with your freight. If demand is soft and volume is down, cheap loads or volume chasing will hurt. Focus on lanes with decent yield and minimal risk.
  

• Control your costs. This means fuel disciplines, deadhead reduction, idle time cut, and driver retention/coaching. If costs escalate, margins vanish fast.
  

• Monitor capacity and be ready to pivot. If you sense capacity exits (trucks going offline, operators quitting), you might land in a moment of tighter market. Be ready to scale accordingly.
  

• Maintain cash reserves and flexibility. When volumes dip, you’re going to appreciate having margin flexibility and cash to cover the lean times.
  

• Keep your eyes on volume AND spot rates. Don’t bank on volume rebound alone. Rate improvement is happening—but volume weakness is real. Your business should be built for both.
  

Q: Is this signal just another cycle or something deeper?

A: From what the major carriers are saying — it’s deeper than a typical slowdown. Volumes are structurally down, capacity is leaving, and pricing power is creeping back. That means this isn’t “business as usual” — it’s reset time.

Q: Should small carriers wait for freight to pick up?

A: No. Waiting means you’re in reactive mode. The carriers are seeing signals now and acting. You should be doing the same. Prepare, negotiate, cost‑control, and be ready for when demand turns.

Q: How soon could things improve?

A: Few are giving specific timelines. XPO says “early innings” of their strategy. Covenant says bid activity is accelerating now. But volume weakness remains. So improvement is possible in medium term—not tomorrow—but the actions you take now position you for when the rebound hits.

Here’s the truth: You’re working in an industry where five of the largest carriers just told you everything you need to know — volume is down, capacity is shrinking, yield is rising, costs are biting, and execution matters more than ever.

For small carriers, this is both a challenge and an opportunity.

If you lean into discipline now—lock smart contracts, pick better freight, control cost, stay nimble—you can leap ahead. If you coast like everything’s normal, you’ll watch margins vanish just like some of the big guys described.

The cycle may not flip overnight. But the smarter moves you make today will be your advantage tomorrow.

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