inside CarrierSource’s latest demand data

The latest Weekly Shipper Report from CarrierSource paints a picture of waning enthusiasm among shippers seeking trucking capacity, with search activity plummeting to its lowest point in over a month. This data, capturing searches on the platform by major players like members of the Retail Industry Leaders Association (RILA) and Food Shippers of America, underscores a broader freight market malaise. As the report notes, the “Shipper Search Index fell 10.2% WoW to 77.92, the lowest level in over a month, indicating softening shipper engagement to end October.” This drop aligns with historical patterns where October often sees softer freight demand, transitioning from summer peaks to holiday build-up, but it’s exacerbated by overarching economic weakness in consumption and production.

Traditionally, October marks a lull in the freight cycle, post-harvest and pre-holiday rush, with shippers pulling back on aggressive capacity hunts. CarrierSource’s insights confirm this seasonal dip, but place it within a context of persistent macroeconomic uncertainty. The index is now “26% off the September mini-peak (108.4) and 43% below February’s high (136.8),” reflecting not just calendar-driven softness but a reactive shipper mindset amid sluggish consumer spending and production slowdowns. Cross-referencing broader indicators, the report highlights that the “search volume pattern matches broader freight market weakness, with SONAR’s OTVI still lagging early 2025 highs and DAT’s load-to-truck ratios remaining at multi-year lows for dry van and reefer.” Analysts from Stifel and FTR are cited cautioning against optimism, noting that “consumer spending remains soft and tariff policies are clouding demand forecasts heading into Q4.” This suggests shippers are hedging bets in an economy where retail sales have cooled and industrial output faces tariff-related disruptions, leading to fragmented rather than sustained demand.

Equipment type trends reveal a choppy landscape, with no clear momentum. Dry van searches “bounced modestly, recovering slightly after last week’s dramatic plunge, but still well below early fall levels, signaling fragile demand recovery.” This tepid rebound points to cautious restocking in consumer goods amid weak retail consumption. Reefer interest “cooled, falling off from recent strength,” as “seasonal food and beverage demand appears to have leveled off post-holiday staging,” mirroring reduced agricultural production and softer grocery sales. Open deck activity “slumped again, giving back much of October’s gains,” with the report attributing this to “construction-related freight appears to be pulling back heading into colder months.” Power only demand “slipped, reversing course after a stable stretch,” as shippers remain “hesitant to commit to flexible trailer options amid lingering rate uncertainty.” Overall, the report observes that “equipment demand remains choppy and directionless, with short-term pops failing to establish lasting momentum,” indicative of shippers prioritizing tactical responses over strategic investments in a weakening economy.