BTC at $100K Back on Table as Volatility Shatters Uptrend, Ether Bulls Grow Bolder

This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) 30-day implied volatility index (BVIV) has contracted sharply to 48, decisively breaking below the bullish trendline established since the September lows. This breakdown signals a dissipation of panic and the potential for further volatility compression.

Simultaneously, the US dollar index’s renewed downtrend provides additional tailwinds for sustained BTC price appreciation. It is notable that the spot-volatility correlation has remained predominantly negative since November of last year, underscoring the inverse relationship in play.

Technically, BTC has successfully reclaimed the Friday high of $93,104 as support, securing a foothold within bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud on the hourly timeframe. The next upward impulse is anticipated upon a bullish crossover in the MACD histogram, with attention shifting towards the $98,000 to $100,000 resistance band defined by the descending trendline and key psychological barrier.

The bullish outlook would come under threat should BTC break back below the Ichimoku cloud, signaling potential erosion of upward momentum.

XRP seems to be building a base near $2.20 for the subsequent upside leg after decisively crossing into bullish territory above the Ichimoku cloud earlier this week. The prevailing sideways consolidation coincides with a bearish crossover in the hourly MACD histogram; however, the absence of concomitant price erosion underscores latent underlying strength and supports the case for sustained upward momentum.

Immediate overhead resistance resides at $2.28 and $2.30.

Ether is extending its advance following a confirmed bear trap, evidenced by two consecutive green daily candles characterized by minimal wicks, signaling clear buyer control. This bullish price action, reinforced by a positive MACD histogram on the daily timeframe, signals a strong probability of continued upside targeting the October 10 low near $3,510.

However, interim gains may be contingent upon a corrective retracement to the former resistance now acting as support at $3,100, as the hourly MACD histogram approaches a bearish crossover, potentially foreshadowing short-term consolidation before the next leg higher.

SOL is teasing a breakout from its sideways channel, currently consolidating near the upper boundary at $144.74. A decisive breach above this level would likely catalyze further upside momentum toward $165, the level identified with the help of the measured move method.