IDC sees global smartphone shipments dipping in 2026 as memory costs bite

Dec 2 (Reuters) – Global smartphone shipments are expected to decline by 0.9% in 2026 as rising memory chip ​prices are pushing average selling prices to record highs, according to research ‌firm IDC.

The drop follows a stronger 2025, when shipments are forecast to grow 1.5% to 1.‌25 billion units, driven by Apple‘s strong performance and a rebound in China.

Apple is on track for a record year in 2025, with shipments projected to rise 6.1% to 247 million units, helped by surging demand for its iPhone 17 ⁠series.

In China, Apple’s largest ‌market, surging demand for the iPhone 17 pushed its share above 20% in October and November, reversing earlier projections of ‍a 1% decline and prompting a revised forecast of 3% shipment growth in the region for the year.

Globally, Apple is expected to generate over $261 billion in revenue from iPhone sales ​in 2025, representing 7.2% growth from a year earlier.

IDC said the ‌2026 downturn reflects component shortages and Apple’s decision to delay its next base iPhone model to early 2027, which will pull down iOS shipments by more than 4%.

The ongoing global memory shortage is expected to constrain supply and raise costs, hitting low-to-mid range Android devices hardest as they remain more price sensitive, IDC ⁠added.

Despite the decline in units, average ​selling prices are expected to climb to $465 next ​year, pushing the market’s total value to a record $578.9 billion.

“Next year will be a challenging time for the industry, ‍however, IDC still ⁠believes the market could see record ASPs,” said Anthony Scarsella, research director at IDC.

With memory stocks becoming scarce and more expensive, vendors ⁠are expected to adjust portfolios toward higher-margin models to offset rising bill-of-material costs, while ‌some will be forced to raise prices outright.

(Reporting by Kritika ‌Lamba in Bengaluru; Editing by Tasim Zahid)