US Retail Sales Are Proving Resilient While Risks Mount

(Bloomberg) — US retail sales growth likely moderated a touch in September, capping an otherwise solid quarter of spending by consumers who are nonetheless frustrated by high prices and anxious about job security.

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Economists expect a 0.4% increase in sales after the 0.6% gain a month earlier, based on the Bloomberg survey median estimate. Delayed for more than a month by the government shutdown, the Census Bureau is scheduled to issue the figures on Tuesday.

Retail demand proved resilient over the summer, probably helping to fuel an acceleration in economic growth during the third quarter. At the same time, there’s a risk that consumer outlays will cool as many employers temper hiring.

Moreover, discretionary spending is being supported mostly by upper-income shoppers enjoying the fruits of the year’s stock market rally. For those further down the income ladder, the higher cost of many staple items is taking a toll.

The latest University of Michigan data show consumers have the dimmest views of their personal finances since 2009, and see the probability of losing their jobs at the highest in five years.

In the retail space, companies including Walmart Inc. and Gap Inc. have reported strong quarterly sales as well as success in appealing to higher-income shoppers. Yet Home Depot Inc. warned that many consumers are putting remodeling projects and big-ticket purchases on hold.

Other key US data in the coming week include the producer price index and durable goods orders for September, as well as weekly jobless claims. Those reports come ahead of Thursday’s Thanksgiving holiday and Black Friday, the biggest retailing day of the year.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book on Wednesday, covering October and early November, is likely to highlight weakness in employment and activity.

What Bloomberg Economics Says:

“Labor-market conditions bottomed during the summer, then improved gradually until the government shutdown began — which led to some renewed weakness in spending and hiring. Firms are mostly seeking ways to cut costs by adopting technology and trimming hiring. Altogether, we believe the Fed can and probably should cut rates in December to sustain the fragile recovery that began during the summer.”

—Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger, Estelle Ou, Chris G. Collins, Troy Durie and Alex Tanzi. For full analysis, click here

Canada will release gross domestic product data on Friday. It likely grew slightly in the third quarter after contracting between April and June as US tariffs crushed exports. The Bank of Canada expects 0.5% expansion on an annualized basis, and has said it believes rates are at “about the right level” as long as the economy and inflation evolve in line with its forecasts.

Traders in overnight swaps currently see just a slim, 3% chance of a rate cut at the central bank’s Dec. 10 meeting. Still, the GDP report is expected to show a sluggish economy with a manufacturing sector hit hard by the US trade war.

Elsewhere, the long-awaited UK budget and inflation readings from Australia to Germany to Mexico will draw attention. Central bankers in New Zealand, Israel and Nigeria are likely to cut interest rates, while South Korea is expected to hold.

Click here for what happened in the past week, and below is our wrap of what’s coming up in the global economy.

Asia

Asia’s final week of November brings a dense run of price data and rate decisions that will shape how policymakers close the year.

The week begins with Singapore’s October CPI, with economists predicting an acceleration in prices, while Taiwan follows with its unemployment rate.

On Tuesday, South Korea releases consumer confidence, Japan has department-store sales, and Taiwan reports industrial production for October. The data will give a sense of how consumption and external demand are holding up across North Asia.

Attention shifts mid-week to Australia and New Zealand. Australia’s October CPI will show whether price pressures remain elevated enough for the Reserve Bank to stay on an extended hold. Third-quarter construction data, due the same day, will highlight the impact of lower borrowing costs on the building pipeline.

In Wellington, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to lower borrowing costs again to bring its official cash rate to 2.25%, a near 3-1/2 year low. Singapore’s industrial production figures and the Philippines’ budget balance are also on the calendar.

Attention turns to Seoul on Thursday, where the Bank of Korea is set to leave rates unchanged at 2.5%. The same day, New Zealand reports third-quarter retail sales and ANZ business surveys, key to measuring how easier monetary conditions are feeding through to households and firms.

The week concludes with a data-heavy Friday. Japan’s Tokyo CPI, labor-market data, retail sales and industrial production will offer a comprehensive snapshot of how households and manufacturers are coping with tighter monetary settings and a weaker yen. South Korea’s industrial production and the Philippines’ trade balance are also on tap.

Taiwan posts preliminary third-quarter GDP and India closes the week with its third-quarter growth print ahead of a long-awaited trade pact with the US.

Europe, Middle East, Africa

Public finances will dominate the headlines in Europe. Most prominent will be the UK, where Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers a budget after weeks of speculation that have roiled financial markets and — according to survey data — unsettled business sentiment.

Reeves needs to find as much as £30 billion ($39 billion) in extra funds to restore stability to the public finances. Having floated the prospect of income tax increases that would have broken pre-election promises, she dialed back on that and is now likely to take other steps to achieve her goal.

Czech lawmakers on Wednesday will start discussing a draft budget for 2026 that may indicate an outlook for the fiscal deficit.

Meanwhile, Bulgarian lawmakers may approve their own finance bill for 2026 in the coming week — the country’s first budget to be denominated in euros — amid criticism from experts and the opposition that debt levels are rising rapidly while the deficit, at the European Union’s 3% threshold, is unrealistic.

And in Romania, the government may approve a set of reforms likely to include spending cuts for the public administration through a fast-track procedure in parliament.

Turning to the euro zone, Germany’s closely watched Ifo business confidence index will be released on Monday, with only a slight improvement in sentiment anticipated for Europe’s largest economy.

All four of the region’s biggest economies will publish inflation numbers on Friday. Germany and France are predicted to see acceleration, with no change for Italy and a slowdown in price growth in Spain.

Several European Central Bank officials are scheduled to speak, including President Christine Lagarde in Bratislava on Monday. The institution’s financial stability review comes two days later, followed on Thursday by its account of the discussion by policymakers at their Oct. 29-30 meeting.

Some monetary decisions are on the calendar in the wider region:

• Israel is set to lower its key rate for the first time in almost two years on Monday as a ceasefire in Gaza tames inflation and stabilizes markets. The Bank of Israel is expected to cut by 25 basis points to 4.25%, according to economists in a Bloomberg survey.

• Nigeria is poised to reduce its benchmark by 100 basis points on Tuesday, to 26%, after inflation slowed more than expected in October to 16%.

• In Ghana, where annual inflation has cooled to a more than four-year low, policymakers are predicted to cut borrowing costs for a third straight meeting — by 325 basis points to 18.25% — after a surprise 350-point reduction in September.

Latin America

There’s very little chance that Mexico’s mid-month consumer prices report on Monday will either cement or derail the central bank’s 12th straight rate cut at next month’s meeting — 33 of 35 economists in Citi’s most recent survey expect just that on Dec. 18.

Headline inflation is taking a bumpy path down to Banxico’s year-end forecasts — though the core readings have been less cooperative — and policymakers are much more focused on the risk of a recession after output contracted in the third quarter.

Perhaps of greater interest to Mexico watchers, Banxico’s inflation report on Wednesday may present downward revisions to growth and inflation projections as a mix of US tariffs, trade uncertainty and fiscal retrenchment batter Latin America’s No. 2 economy.

Expect Brazil’s mid-month consumer prices data on Wednesday to offer more evidence that the central bank’s take-no-prisoners, scorched-earth monetary policy is working. Brazil will also post its broadest inflation gauge — the IGP-M general price index — for November.

The week will offer check-ins on the labor markets of four of the region’s bigger economies. Unemployment in Brazil has been running at a record low 5.6% since July, and joblessness in Mexico and Colombia are below long-term levels as well, while holding above average in Chile.

The highlight of a light week in Argentina is September GDP-proxy data, certain to reflect the sharp selloff of local assets in the run-up to the Oct. 26 midterm election.

A third-quarter contraction seems likely, and analysts surveyed by the central bank anticipate 3.9% growth in 2025, down from July’s forecast of 5%.

–With assistance from Andrew Atkinson, Carla Canivete, Jeremy Diamond, Mark Evans, Robert Jameson, Laura Dhillon Kane, Swati Pandey, Piotr Skolimowski and Monique Vanek.

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