What Lowe’s and Walmart Just Told Us About Q1 Freight — Part 2 of the Retail Freight Outlook
When Home Depot reported earnings early this week, it gave us the first real signal about how freight could shape up heading into Q1. They told us the consumer wasn’t collapsing, but they also weren’t opening their wallets like they used to. Big home projects were getting delayed. DIY was soft. And inventory levels were steady enough that a big January restock wasn’t coming.
Now Lowe’s and Walmart have stepped up to the mic — and they’ve basically confirmed everything Home Depot hinted at. And for small carriers who live and die by freight cycles instead of corporate projections, this second round of earnings offers something even more important: clarity.
Let’s walk through what these two retail giants really told us.
Lowe’s — The Project Economy Is Moving, But Slowly
Lowe’s numbers differed from Home Depot in a way that’s almost impossible to ignore. Sales were steady, but not strong. Customers are still buying the basics, but they’re holding off on big remodels, upgrades, or unnecessary home improvement plans.
What stood out most was Lowe’s comment about their Pro customer base — the contractors and builders who typically drive the bulk of construction-related freight. They’re still coming in, still spending, still working. But they’re not scaling. They’re not taking on bigger jobs. They’re not pulling the trigger on the kind of materials orders that push big volumes through flatbed, LTL, and regional van networks.
That’s a meaningful signal.
The construction world is usually a leading indicator for freight three to four months down the road. When contractors are confident, they buy early and stock up. When they’re unsure, they buy only what the job requires — nothing more. And right now, Lowe’s is telling us they’re in the second camp.
For truckers, that likely means a slower January and February for materials, appliances, fixtures, and other home-related freight. There will still be freight — it just won’t be the heavy-volume kind that kicks off an early spring surge. Flatbeds rely heavily on the building material segment that both Lowe’s and Home Depot rely on. Pro penetration (the total percentage of retail sales from the pro customer) is the bread and butter of these two retail giants.
Balanced inventory levels across retailers suggest limited early-year restocking, which typically keeps truckload demand flat heading into Q1. (Source: SONAR. TRIS.USA)
Walmart — The Consumer Is Stable, But Far More Disciplined
If Home Depot shows one slice of American spending and Lowe’s shows another, Walmart reveals the whole heartbeat. And Walmart’s Q3 earnings tell a complicated but honest story: the consumer is still spending, but spending with caution.
Grocery was strong. Everyday essentials were strong. E-commerce showed healthy growth. But the discretionary categories — the TVs, electronics, decor, general merchandise — are soft. Not dead. Just soft enough that Walmart isn’t ordering aggressively.
And when Walmart isn’t ordering aggressively, DCs across the country shift into “defensive mode.” They keep stock tight. They replenish only when they need to, especially in the final stretch. They avoid big forward-positioning pushes.
That discipline potentially affects the entire trucking ecosystem:
fewer replenishment runs leaving import DCs
fewer high-margin consumer loads
fewer regional surges tied to general merchandise
less long-haul van freight being pushed ahead of Q1
What Walmart actually revealed is that the consumer hasn’t stopped — they’ve just changed how they spend. More groceries. More necessities. More value-based shopping. Less impulse buying. Less big-ticket activity.
And that creates a freight environment that moves, but doesn’t accelerate.
What This Really Means for Q1
Put all three together — Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart — and a clear picture emerges of what small carriers can expect heading into the first quarter of 2026.
January is almost setup to be slow. This isn’t a year where large retailers overshot their inventory and now need to refill everything at once. If anything, they’ve kept inventory lean on purpose. That means less panic-buying, less urgent replenishment, and fewer “pushes” of freight into distribution centers early in the year. We have seen this in the slowing of inbound container volume as well.
The consumer is stable — not booming, not collapsing — which creates a freight market that’s steady but tight. Rates don’t crash in an environment like this, but they also don’t climb. The freight isn’t drying up; it’s just not expanding in a way that moves spot rates. When you throw in added capacity, you experience rate stagnation.
Winter will be carried mostly by essentials: food, supplies, household goods, consumables, the kind of freight that never truly goes away. This will keep trucks rolling, but not at aggressive rates.
Construction-related freight looks slow until at least March. The Pros aren’t scaling, and Lowe’s made that clear. Without those early-material orders, the spring build-up could hit later than normal.
E-commerce will help keep freight flowing, especially into the Southeast and major metro areas, but it won’t save the quarter. So much of that freight is already locked under contract with mega carriers — they’ll eat first, as always.
And DCs being cautious creates a predictable effect: no spikes, fewer swings, and tighter spot availability.
The Real Story Small Carriers Should Pay Attention To
The real story isn’t the earnings numbers. It’s the behavior underlying those numbers. Retailers are acting intentionally conservative right now:
They’re ordering strategically.
They’re protecting margins.
They’re avoiding overstocking, which they learned from the pandemic.
They’re leaning harder on forecasting models.
They’re only replenishing when the customer forces their hand.
In trucking, volatility creates opportunity. When inventories run too low, freight surges. When inventories run too high, freight surges again as retailers scramble to reposition. But in a balanced environment — the kind these retailers are carefully maintaining — volatility disappears.
And without volatility, the spot market stays quiet.
What Carriers Should Watch Between Now and February
The next eight to twelve weeks matter. They’ll decide how spring looks. Carriers should watch:
Whether Walmart increases grocery purchase orders after holiday demand
Whether Lowe’s and Home Depot place early spring orders for materials
Whether import volumes begin climbing into West Coast ports
Whether consumer sentiment in January ticks up or down
Whether DCs start hiring seasonal warehouse crews early
These things matter more than capacity exits, more than short-term rate bumps, and more than the social media predictions that pop up every week.
Retail tells the truth first. Trucking feels the truth later.
Right now, retail is telling us to expect a slow climb into spring.
Final Thought — This Is a Quarter to Be Smart, Not Overly Optimistic
This winter will reward small carriers who manage their cost per mile, keep their lanes tight, and secure relationships with brokers they trust. It’s not a time to gamble on the spot market. It’s a time to run smart miles and protect the business until stronger demand cycles return.
Q1 won’t deliver a miracle. But it also won’t deliver a collapse. What we’re entering is a season of steady freight with firm floors and low ceilings — and the carriers who adapt to that reality will be the ones standing strong when demand finally broadens later in the year.
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