Used Truck Prices Steadying, But Small Carriers Should Pay Close Attention to What’s Coming Next

The used truck market has been on a roller coaster for the last five years. First came the COVID boom, when prices exploded and used tractors were selling for more than brand-new models did prior it felt like. Then came the freight recession, which sent prices tumbling and flooded the market with equipment nobody wanted to finance. Now, according to ACT Research, the used Classes 3–8 market is finally showing signs of flattening out. Prices aren’t falling off a cliff anymore. Sales volumes are steady. Retail prices are holding. To the outside world, it looks like stability.

But to the small carrier—the owner-operator who buys used, not new—this isn’t a “calm” market. It’s a potential turning point. Because any time used truck pricing stops falling, something bigger is happening underneath. And with the 2027 emissions rule locked in, small carriers need to pay attention now, not two years from now when the downstream effects show up in their budget.

This article breaks down what ACT Research reported, what the trends actually mean, and how all of this ties into the next emissions cycle that will hit the used market where small carriers live.

ACT Research: Used Market Stabilizing After Two Years of Decline

ACT’s latest numbers show that the used market—Classes 3 through 8—isn’t dropping the way it did from mid-2022 through mid-2024. Prices aren’t skyrocketing like they did during the COVID bull run, but they’re no longer in freefall either.

The way ACT frames it:

Demand has returned to “normal-ish” levels, inventories are “workable”, fleets are buying right-sized again and retail pricing has stopped eroding.

For example:

• Late-model Class 8 retail prices are now flat month-over-month.

• Sales volumes are stable—not booming, not collapsing.

• Mileage and age have also flattened, meaning fleets aren’t just dumping old equipment.

• The market seems to have found its “floor” for now.

On paper, that looks promising. In reality, it’s a sign that the bottom has already passed.

Once the bottom of used equipment pricing is confirmed, the next phase usually follows: slow, steady appreciation as replacement cycles ramp back up. The one thing to consider is as ELP enforcement continues, one should expect inventory levels to increase which would in theory, impact pricing based on supply.

But this time, the pressure won’t be coming from strong freight demand. It will be coming from something else entirely.

The Force That Will Move the Used Market Next Isn’t Freight — It’s the 2027 Emissions Rule

This is the part some small carriers may not see coming.

https://www.freightwaves.com/news/epa-holds-firm-on-2027-nox-rule-what-small-carriers-need-to-know-before-the-market-shiftsEPA has confirmed it will NOT push back the 2027 NOx rule. Manufacturers have to meet that deadline. That means cleaner engines, more aftertreatment, more sensors, more cost, and more complexity.

Large fleets know the playbook. They’ve seen this cycle before:

New emissions rule → fleets pre-buy → used truck supply tightens → prices rise → small carriers pay more.

In 2007–2010, when DPF and SCR systems rolled out, fleets bought thousands of pre-emissions trucks ahead of the deadline. The used market tightened overnight. Prices for 2006 models shot up. Older trucks became the “safe” choice. Small carriers paid the premium, often with financing terms that didn’t make sense, because they wanted to avoid first-generation emissions technology.

That cycle is probably about to repeat.

Why does that matter today? Because the stabilization ACT is reporting is the calm before the market starts climbing again. Not because freight is booming. But because fleet behavior always gets aggressive before an emissions deadline.

You’re watching the beginning of a pre-buy cycle.

What the Used Market Stabilization REALLY Means for Small Carriers

To a small carrier, “prices stabilizing” means something very different than it does to lenders, OEMs, and analysts.

Here’s what it actually means:

If you were planning to buy a truck in 2025 or 2026, the window of opportunity is starting to close.

Right now, you’re standing in the last stretch of a buyer’s market. Prices are reasonable. Inventory is broad. Age and mileage are predictable. Dealers are negotiating. Financing is tight but not brutal. Selection is decent.

But the moment OEMs move into 2027 pre-production, large fleets will start placing orders earlier. They’ll start holding onto certain year models. They’ll start pulling good-condition units out of the used market. And they’ll begin preparing to cycle out older trucks once they know what the new emissions systems will look like.

That creates three pressures small carriers always feel first:

1. Used prices rise.

2. Lower-mileage units vanish.

3. Mid-life trucks (4–7 years old) become premium inventory.

So while ACT is reporting stability today, the next phase is going to be scarcity.

The Small Carrier Advantage — and The Small Carrier Trap

Small carriers have one advantage in the used market: they’re flexible. They can shop multiple years, engines, spec packages, and conditions. They don’t need hundreds of units. They just need one good truck.

But they also fall into a trap: they wait too long.

Small carriers make decisions based on cash flow, not forecasts. They wait until the current truck is dying sometimes before thinking about the next one. They delay upgrades because the market is “bad.” They rely heavily on run-to-failure thinking because repairs feel cheaper than financing.

That works fine in a normal equipment cycle.

But it turns deadly right before an emissions rollout.

If you wait too long, you’ll be shopping in a used market that:

• has higher prices

• has fewer good units

• has more overpriced auction trucks

• has more high-mileage castoffs

• has dealers who stop negotiating

• has fleets holding their best-used inventory longer

• has increased financing requirements

• has insurers penalizing older equipment

That’s why this stabilization ACT is reporting must be a wake-up call. The used market is telling you:

This is as cheap as it’s going to be for a while, unless there is a flood of inventory that outpaces demand.

The Lingering Shadow of DPF Problems — Why Small Carriers Are Right to Be Cautious

The trucking industry still bears the scars from DPF rollout. Small carriers remember buying trucks that regen’d every day. Trucks that derated on the highway. Trucks that needed $3,000 sensors and $10,000 one box replacements. Trucks that lived in dealerships while owners lived on credit cards.

That trauma is why small carriers get nervous anytime a new emissions package approaches. And for good reason.

First-generation emissions systems are rarely stable. Shop techs still don’t fully understand them. OEMs issue campaign after campaign. Owners troubleshoot at their own expense. Downtime skyrockets. Warranty battles get messy.

Small carriers remember that era vividly. They don’t want to repeat it. And they shouldn’t.

But that pressure is exactly why the used market tightens before the new rule hits. Everyone wants the “known quantity”—the engines that are proven, the aftertreatment that mechanics understand, the platforms that have settled into reliable patterns.

Pre-2027 trucks are going to become the safety choice.

And small carriers will be fighting fleets for the same inventory.

What Small Carriers Should Do Right Now

You don’t have to panic, you just have to be aware and prepared.

If your truck is aging and your business depends on keeping moving, start preparing sooner than later.

Here’s what matters most:

If you’re within 12–18 months of needing a truck, begin shopping now. If you’re running a 2015–2017 model, plan your budget for replacement before 2026. If your truck is paid off and reliable, invest in maintenance now so you can hold it longer.

If you want a second truck, account for higher prices and tighter selection potentially.

If you rely heavily on older emissions systems, prepare for rising parts and repair costs.

Nobody needs to run out and buy a truck tomorrow.

But the used market is shifting, and small carriers need to think ahead for once—not react when the damage is done.

Final Thought — The Numbers Look Calm, But This Is the Moment to Prepare

On paper, ACT Research is right: the used truck market has stabilized. Prices have leveled. Inventory is steady. The panic selling has stopped. But the market always flattens right before it starts climbing again—and this time, the 2027 emissions rule will be the force pushing prices up, not freight demand.

Small carriers won’t feel the impact in 2027.

They’ll feel it in the used lots two years before the rule ever takes effect. That time is now. The smart carriers are already watching the market, the reactive ones will say “nobody warned me.”

This is the warning.

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