Corn Posts Double Digit Losses as Yield Cut Falls Short of Estimates

Corn futures closed out the Friday session with contracts down 10 to 11 ½ cents. Despite the losses, December closed with a gain of 3 cents on the week. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 11 cents at $3.91 ½.

After a month off, USDA released an updated Crop Production report this morning, showing corn yield at 186 bpa. That was just a 0.7 bpa decrease from the September report and dropped output by 62 mbu to 16.752 bbu. Traders were looking for a 184 bpa yield number.

As per the WASDE, there was a 207 mbu increase to the 2024/25 carryout number at 1.532 bbu, expected from the September Grain Stocks report, which took total 2025/26 supply 144 mbu higher to 18.309 bbu. Other demand changes came from exports (+100 mbu), which limited the increased the 2025/26 carryout estimate to 44 mbu to 2.154 bbu. The cash average price was also raised by a dime to $4.00.

World corn ending stocks are estimated at 281.34 MMT, which was a 0.06 MMT reduction from the September report. That came as China was trimmed by 3.16 MMT, offsetting the US number.

The USDA also released the backlog of flash sale announcements from October 1 to November 12, with 4.915 MMT reported as large sales (exceeding 100,000 MT). Of that, 4.367 MMT was for the current marketing year and 548,640 MT for 2026/27.

Dec 25 Corn  closed at $4.30 1/4, down 11 1/4 cents,

Nearby Cash  was $3.91 1/2, down 11 cents,

Mar 26 Corn  closed at $4.44, down 11 1/2 cents,

May 26 Corn  closed at $4.52 1/4, down 10 3/4 cents,

On the date of publication, Austin Schroeder did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com