When to expect key economic data after the shutdown and what it means for the Fed

With the federal government on the verge of reopening, the economic data drought caused by the shutdown may also soon come to an end.

As the Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares to release weeks of delayed reports, economists caution that the resulting flood of information won’t arrive all at once. It also may not perfectly capture what happened in the U.S. economy during the shutdown.

Because data collection was suspended at the agency, two monthly jobs reports and a release on third-quarter GDP were postponed, among others. The Consumer Price Index, due out Nov. 13, is also expected to be delayed.

Private-sector metrics have helped fill in some of the gaps, but government statistics are still viewed as the gold standard.

September’s employment report is expected to be the first major release after the shutdown, as that data was already collected before it began. The release of other key metrics on inflation and spending is expected to take longer, possibly one or two weeks, according to Morgan Stanley economists.

Goldman Sachs economists expect the BLS to publish a new data release schedule between Nov. 13 and Nov. 17, depending on when the shutdown ends.

Goldman Sachs economists also expect the September employment report to come out soon after the shutdown ends, and said the other releases will take time, “given the compressed data collection period for November, the Thanksgiving holiday, and the fact that BLS might need extra time to determine how to address missing data for October.”

Brian Bethune, a Boston College economist, said he isn’t sure which releases the BLS will prioritize, especially under the agency’s new leadership. However, he added, if the agency can swing it, updated November data would likely be the most useful for the Federal Reserve ahead of its December meeting.

“You really can’t do anything without those markers, so that tends to favor inaction by the Fed,” Bethune said. “You can think of the Fed now kind of half-and-half split as to whether they should continue to lower rates or keep them steady.”

The data disruption comes at a time when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said there is “no risk-free” path for policy, as inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target and the job market shows signs of cooling.

Morgan Stanley economists said in a Nov. 10 note they expect the unemployment rate to rise through the end of the year and anticipate weaker spending growth in the fourth quarter, leading them to forecast another quarter-point rate cut in December.

“With the return to data dependency, stronger labor market data than expected is a risk to this view,” they said.

Since no one at the BLS collected data during the shutdown, the government reports that would have provided a snapshot of the economy during that time don’t exist.

Still, the agency has a few options. It could ask November survey respondents to recall their situation in October, when the data would normally have been collected. It could send out a separate survey later, asking respondents to think back to that month. Or it could skip October altogether.

“How they backfill the household survey is completely unknown,” Bethune said. “If it’s just not statistically or humanly feasible to do that, you may end up with a gap.”

The U.S. Department of Labor and the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not be reached for comment.

Reach Rachel Barber at rbarber@usatoday.com and follow her on X @rachelbarber_

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: When to expect jobs, inflation numbers after the government reopens