Wall Street’s top analyst calls

The most talked about and market moving research calls around Wall Street are now in one place. Here are today’s research calls that investors need to know, as compiled by The Fly.

Top 5 Upgrades:

• Baird upgraded Circle Internet (CRCL) to Outperform from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $110. Baird views Circle’s current valuation as reasonable given the “outstanding growth” of USDC.

• Loop Capital upgraded Shake Shack (SHAK) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $127, up from $98. The firm believes concerns over the company’s slower growth in October are “overblown.”

• Mizuho upgraded TripAdvisor (TRIP) to Neutral from Underperform with a price target of $17, up from $14. The firm believes the company’s traffic weakness is now better reflected in the shares.

• Jefferies upgraded Gap (GAP) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $30, up from $22. The firm says the company’s new management has delivered a “strong turnaround” at both the Gap and Old Navy brands.

• JPMorgan upgraded MP Materials (MP) to Overweight from Neutral with a price target of $74, down from $75, post the Q3 report. The firm believes the company’s national security importance is underappreciated at current share levels.

Top 5 Downgrades:

• Stifel downgraded Home Depot (HD) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $370, down from $440. The firm has a “cautious bias” heading into the company’s Q3 report.

• Craig-Hallum downgraded Applied Materials (AMAT) to Hold from Buy with a $190 price target. The firm believes investors will get a better buying opportunity over the next few quarters as industry spending increase is multiple quarters away.

• BofA downgraded StubHub (STUB) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $19, down from $25. Q3 revenue and EBITDA beat Street views, but StubHub did not guide for any Q4 metrics and call commentary suggests less 2026 tour timing visibility, the firm tells investors.

• BofA downgraded Flowserve (FLS) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $73, up from $60. Following a recent re-rating, the firm believes near-term nuclear upside is priced into shares.

• Jefferies downgraded Progressive (PGR) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $232, down from $261. The firm sees a lighter growth environment ahead for Progressive due to an increasingly competitive personal auto insurance market.

Top 5 Initiations:

• Baird initiated coverage of Microsoft (MSFT) with an Outperform rating and $600 price target. The firm says Microsoft is “leading the AI revolution” with infrastructure and applications, driven by its partnership with OpenAI, which provides an end-to-end artificial intelligence platform for enterprises and consumers.

• Loop Capital initiated coverage of Polaris (PII) with a Hold rating and $59 price target. The firm has a cautious view on the company’s long-term outlook.

• Wells Fargo initiated coverage of United Rentals (URI) with an Overweight rating and $995 price target. Due to slow growth backdrop, the firm also prefers the construction machinery stocks over engineering Services due to a favorable supply setup in machinery. Wells initiated 22 stocks in the machinery, industrials and environmental services group with Cummins (CMI), Herc Holdings (HRI) and WM (WM) top picks.

• Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of DiaMedica Therapeutics (DMAC) with an Overweight rating and $25 price target. DiaMedica has begun to generate very compelling data for DM199 for treatment of pre-eclampsia, with key opinion leaders indicating a very high unmet need and a very high degree of enthusiasm for this product, the firm tells investors in a research note.

• Stephens initiated coverage of Simpson Manufacturing (SSD) with an Equal Weight rating and $187 price target. The firm expects U.S. housing starts to remain subdued likely until at least the second half of 2026 and while it believes Simpson to be “a unique and high-quality business,” uncertainty around new residential construction going into 2026 keeps the firm on the sidelines.