Why SoftBank is the Dallas Cowboys of AI investing

Good morning and welcome to First Trade. I’ll be hosting a discussion later today about the escalating debate around an AI bubble. First Trade contributor Will Edwards and I will break down both sides, and how to invest, depending on where you come out. Check out the livestream today at 2 p.m. ET.

Rundown

But first, a look at Japan’s tech cowboys.

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Market musings

Picture a team that, no matter what they do, commands all of the attention and ink of a captive media. They make splashy trades, blockbuster acquisitions, and have no problem cutting ties with outperformers in pursuit of greater dominance. They may not win all the time, but they’re always at the center of discussion.

No, I’m not talking about the Dallas Cowboys, although they certainly fit the bill.

I’m instead referring to the Japanese investing conglomerate SoftBank, which made typically large waves on Tuesday when it sold its entire stake in Nvidia.

The messaging on the company’s ensuing earnings call ended up boiling down to: “Don’t worry, we have a plan.” That will probably sound familiar to Cowboys fans used to owner Jerry Jones’ unapologetic approach to transactions. He is the unquestionable driving force behind all decisions, just like founder Masayoshi Son is for SoftBank.

SoftBank’s plan? To use the proceeds from the sale to continue investing heavily in OpenAI, as well as chip designer Ampere Computing, which it acquired in March.

The overarching message, at least as it relates to Ampere? We don’t need the pricey incumbent. We’ll develop our own, younger, less expensive version over time, and hopefully achieve the same result in the long run. (I can again hear all the Cowboys fans nodding knowingly.)

Of course, no comparison to the Cowboys can be complete without a discussion of actual performance.

The unequivocal high for SoftBank was its $20 million Alibaba investment, made in 2000. It paid off huge, blossoming into a $60 billion stake by 2014, a roughly 3,000-times return. The Cowboys also reached the peak of the pro football mountain in the 90s, winning the Super Bowl three times between 1992 and 1995.

But since their respective peaks, both parties lumbered along for years, unable to recapture their past greatness. Save for a COVID-era boom in 2020 and 2021, SoftBank stock has posted steady, if unremarkable gains. Its first Vision Fund ended up losing tens of billions, featuring underperforming investments like WeWork, OYO, and a $500 million robot-pizza startup called Zume.

The Cowboys had a similarly disappointing existence over the same period. They had some solid teams, but no true title contenders.

In 2025, however, SoftBank has been doing its best to buck the trend. Until a recent valuation-driven sell-off that rocked all AI- and tech-focused stocks, shares were up 195% year-to-date. It accomplished that largely by embracing the AI theme, which is what makes its offloading of Nvidia — the most successful AI stock — so risky.

It’s like the Cowboys starting a season 15-0, then trading their star player. There may be a method to the aggressive madness, and only time will tell which side of history they land on.

Ultimately, regardless of what happens, it’ll be entertaining and unique. Those qualities will always be baked into the SoftBank experience, for better or worse.

CoreWeave — a former darling that saw its stock run up as much as 359% after IPOing in March — has had a particularly tough couple of weeks in the market.

It first fell 25% in a matter of days, hit by a mass sell-off aimed at any AI-linked tech names with valuations viewed as overextended. But the most drastic blow came on Tuesday, when the company fell 16% after cutting its revenue forecast, citing the delay of a key data center.

Such is life for a high-flying AI stock these days. Investors seem to be punishing companies for lofty valuations first, and asking questions later. And when there’s an actual fundamental reason to sell, game over.

Business Insider’s Will Edwards spotlights a hot trend dominating Wall Street and the finance industry.

Wall Street’s ubiquitous vests can elicit scoffs from those outside the finance world, but they are beloved within the ranks. But there’s one fashion accessory that divides opinions even within the industry: banker bags.

They’re standard, blue, cylindrical gym duffels that are customized with a firm’s branding. Banks give them out to their employees when they first start. What’s there to dislike?

A lot of it boils down to rank. More tenured bankers stick their nose up at the bags because they’ve become the unofficial signifier that one is an early-career analyst who hasn’t earned their stripes, yet is eager to show off where they work.

“If you’re fresh out of college and it’s like your first finance job, that’s fine. But if you’re over the age of 25 and you’re still rocking that thing, I don’t know,” one New York City influencer said in a video last year. “I think people think they’re a status symbol, but they’re just giving cringe.”

Or, as one of my banker friends put it: “They’re more akin to a five-year-old getting a cap when he joins his first tee-ball team than a high school senior getting a letterman jacket.”

Underneath all of the teasing, however, seems to be an appreciation for the Wall Street staple. Finance meme account Litquidity sells its own branded version of the bag. There’s also a cottage industry on eBay of people selling the bags secondhand.

Lisa McCullagh, the founder of bagmaker Scarborough and Tweed — whose first financial clients were JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs — told BI that the conversation around the bags is flattering, even if it sometimes takes a critical tone.

“They poke fun at themselves, but they do love it,” McCullagh, who gets orders for thousands of bags a year, said. “It’s like this little rite of passage into the community.”

After all, the bags are quite useful for people who often find themselves working long hours at the office. One banker told me that you typically put gym clothes into them, as well as a change of clothes for the evening hours when you want to wear a more comfortable outfit. Plus, they don’t wrinkle your clothes like putting them in a backpack would.

So, what do you guys think? I, for one, think they look pretty cool. I mean, the classic color schemes, the step and repeat branding on the handles — they’re timeless.

Joe, can we get some custom-made First Trade bags?

— Will Edwards

The First Trade team: Joe Ciolli, executive editor and anchor, in Chicago. Akin Oyedele, deputy editor, in New York. William Edwards, senior reporter, in New York. Steve Russolillo, chief news editor, in New York. Huileng Tan, senior reporter, in Singapore.

Read the original article on Business Insider